Buying While Prices Ease: What Perth's History Says About Holding Long Term
A lot of the buyers I speak with right now have their deposit ready and their finance sorted, and they're still holding off. The reason is always the same: prices are falling, so why not wait? It's a fair question. Here's what the data says about buying in a cooling market, including what happened to Perth buyers in past downturns 5, 10 and 15 years after they bought.
Where the Perth market is now
After one of the strongest runs of any Australian city, Perth has turned. The latest figures:
Measure | Latest reading | Source |
Perth dwelling values, September | Down 1.2% for the month, 4.7% for the quarter | Cotality |
Distance from the peak | 6.0% below the April 2026 peak | Cotality |
Perth values over 12 months | Still up 10.1% | Cotality |
Homes for sale in Perth | 7,335 at end of August, up 146% on a year earlier | REIWA |
Median days to sell a house | 23 days in August, 12 days slower than a year earlier | REIWA |
Sales below asking price | Nearly half of all sales in July | REIWA |
Cotality Home Value Index, September 2026. REIWA market data for July and August 2026.
In plain terms: there's more to choose from, homes are taking longer to sell, and sellers are accepting less than they hoped. That's a very different market from early 2026, when only about one in ten Perth houses sold below the listing price.
The case for buying in a cooling market
You have more negotiating power
When listings more than double in a year, sellers are competing for fewer buyers. REIWA's figures show the share of discounted sales rose from about one in ten in late 2025 and early 2026 to nearly half by July. Among houses that sold below their listing price in June, the average discount was 7.5%.
You have time to do it properly
With homes taking longer to sell, you can attend a second inspection, get a building and pest report done before you commit, and compare a few properties instead of making an offer the same day. That reduces the risk of buying the wrong home, which is usually a bigger and more expensive mistake than buying at the wrong time.
You can ask for terms, not just price
A seller who's been on the market for six weeks is often open to more than a lower price. Things worth asking for:
A longer or shorter settlement to suit your lease or your sale
A proper finance clause with enough time for approval
A building inspection condition, or repairs completed before settlement
Inclusions such as window treatments, appliances or outdoor fixtures
In a cooling market, the price is negotiable and so are the terms. Buyers who ask often get both.
The case against, or at least for caution
Prices may keep falling
No one knows where the bottom is. Perth is 6% off its peak after six months. Past Perth downturns went further: about 11% over 13 months during the GFC, and about 20% between the June 2014 peak and the September 2019 trough. If you buy now, it's realistic to plan for your home being worth less than you paid for a while.
Borrowing is harder than it was
The Reserve Bank has lifted the cash rate four times this year. Every rise reduces how much a lender will approve and increases repayments. Roy Morgan estimated 32.3% of mortgage holders were at risk of mortgage stress in August, close to the highest level in 18 years. Buying should only make sense if the repayments work with room to spare.
Falling prices hurt if you need to sell soon
If there's a real chance you'll need to sell in the next two or three years, for work, family or a change of plans, a falling market carries much more risk. Buying and selling costs alone can wipe out any small gain over a short period.
What history says about holding long term
This is the part that matters most if you plan to live in the home for 10 years or more. Using REIWA's median house sale price for Perth, here's what happened to buyers at three points in past cycles.
If you bought… | Price then | About 5 years later | About 10 years later | About 15 years later |
Late 2007, just before the GFC dip | ~$475,000 | Mid-2011: ~$475,000 (flat) | Dec 2017: $516,000 (+9%) | 2022-23: $555,000 (+17%) |
Dec quarter 2011, a buyer's market | $465,000 | Dec 2016: ~$516,000 (+11%) | 2022-23: $555,000 (+19%) | Aug 2026: $960,000 (+106%) |
Dec quarter 2013, near the peak | $550,000 | Dec 2017: $516,000 (−6%) | 2022-23: $555,000 (+1%) | Aug 2026: $960,000 (+75%) |
REIWA Perth median house sale prices. Points are the nearest available reported figures, so some intervals are approximate (the 2007 buyer's '5-year' point is mid-2011, about 3.5 years later). Nominal prices, not adjusted for inflation. Past results don't predict future ones.
Cotality's dwelling value index tells the same story from a different angle. Someone who bought at Perth's June 2014 peak was about 20% behind by September 2019, and only got back to where they started in April 2022, almost eight years later. By August 2024, roughly ten years after buying, that home was worth about 43% more than the purchase price. Someone who bought near the September 2019 low was about 79% ahead within five years.
What this tells us, honestly
Over 10 to 15 years, every buyer in these examples ended up ahead in dollar terms, including the one who bought near the 2014 peak.
But the gains weren't guaranteed or even. The pre-GFC buyer was only about 17% ahead after 15 years, which is likely less than inflation over the same period.
Timing mattered a lot over five years and much less over fifteen.
Buyers who bought when the market was quiet, like late 2011, did better than those who bought at the top. Today's market has some of the same features: more listings, slower sales and more discounting.
A note on today's supply
Perth listings have more than doubled in a year, but at 7,335 they're still well below the roughly 13,500 to 18,200 homes for sale during the 2011 buyer's market. Buyers have more choice than a year ago, but this isn't an oversupplied market by historical standards.
My view
Based on what I'm seeing day to day, I think this is a reasonably good time for the right buyer. Competition has thinned out, rushed decisions have largely gone, and sellers are more open to negotiating on price and terms. For someone planning to stay put for 10 years or more, trying to time the exact bottom matters less than buying a good home at a fair price with repayments you can manage.
That doesn't make it right for everyone. If your job isn't secure, your buffer is thin, or you might need to sell within a few years, waiting is the more sensible choice.
A practical checklist before you buy in this market
Get a full pre-approval first, so you know your limit and can negotiate with confidence
Stress-test your repayments for at least one more rate rise
Keep a cash buffer after settlement, ideally three to six months of repayments
Check recent sales in the street, not just the asking price
Make your offer conditional on finance and a building inspection
Plan to hold for the long term, and choose a home you'd be happy to stay in
If you'd like more background, my earlier posts on whether falling prices are a reason to wait and what a cooling market means for first home buyers go into more detail.
Thinking about buying while the market is quieter?
I'll help you work out a comfortable price range, stress-test the repayments and get pre-approval in place, so you can negotiate from a position of strength.
Sources: Cotality Home Value Index, September 2026; REIWA market updates, June to September 2026; REIWA quarterly median house prices, 2011 to 2023 (via REIWA, Property Observer and The Real Estate Conversation); Cotality, Perth dwelling values hit new record highs (2022); Roy Morgan, mortgage stress August 2026
This article is general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Scheme rules, lender policies and eligibility criteria change, so confirm the current position before acting. Lending criteria, fees and charges apply.
Ian Freeman, Finance 365. Credit Representative Number 439731 of Australian Credit Licence 384704.