Will the RBA Raise Rates Again? What the September Decision Means for WA Borrowers
On 29 September, the Reserve Bank hands down its next cash rate decision — and for the first time in a few meetings, the big four banks genuinely don't agree on what's coming. If you're mid-application, weighing up fixed vs variable, or just trying to budget sensibly, here's what's actually going on and what it means for you.
What's happened so far in 2026
The RBA lifted the cash rate by a cumulative 75 basis points across 2026 before pausing at 4.35% at its August meeting — the first hold after three consecutive rises. Governor Michele Bullock was careful to note the pause wasn't a signal that hikes were finished, only that the Board wanted more data before its next move.
Why another move is still on the table
The data released since the August pause hasn't settled the question. Headline inflation eased to 3.5% over the year to July, down from 3.8% in June — encouraging on the surface. But trimmed mean inflation, the measure the RBA watches most closely because it strips out one-off price swings, held steady at 3.6%. Both figures remain above the RBA's 2–3% target band, which is exactly the kind of "not clearly done yet" picture that keeps a hike in play.
The big four don't agree
Bank | September call |
NAB | Hike to 4.60% at the September meeting |
CBA | Hike likely, but timed for November |
ANZ | Hike likely, but timed for November |
Westpac | No change expected at all |
All four now expect a hike is more likely than a cut before year's end — they simply disagree on timing. That's a genuinely useful signal for borrowers: don't plan around rates coming down any time soon.
What this means if you're buying, refinancing, or coming off a fixed rate
If you're pre-approved and shopping, a further rise could trim your borrowing capacity before you've found the right property — worth checking now rather than after the fact. If you're weighing fixed vs variable, the split banks aren't agreeing is itself the useful data point: a short fixed term can buy certainty while the picture clears, without locking you in for years against a rate that may already be near its peak. And if a fixed term is expiring in the next few months, it's worth getting ahead of the revert rate rather than being surprised by it.
"The banks being split isn't bad news — it means nobody's certain, which is exactly when it pays to have your own numbers checked rather than guessing." — Ian Freeman
What to do before 29 September
Stress-test your budget against a further 0.25–0.50% rise, not just today's repayment
If you're mid-application, get your borrowing capacity confirmed sooner rather than later
Revisit fixed vs variable based on your own risk appetite, not headlines
If your fixed rate is expiring soon, start the refinance conversation now, not after it reverts
Not sure where you stand?
Take the free Home Loan Readiness Check to see your borrowing position before the decision lands.
Ian Freeman is a Credit Representative (Number 439731) of Australian Credit Licence 384704 (Finsure Finance and Insurance Pty Ltd). This article is general information only and does not take into account your personal circumstances. Rates and forecasts cited reflect market commentary as at 13 September 2026 and are subject to change.